White Sox (Humber) vs. Diamondbacks (Collmenter) UNDER 8 RUNS (Pick #2 for the day)
Philip Humber has an ERA under 3, currently sitting at 2.95. That ERA increases slightly to 3.38 on the road. He has been fairly consistent, allowing 3 runs or less in 8 out of his last 10 starts. He also pitched on the road at the Yankees, allowing 1 hit and no runs for seven innings. He has a 2.45 ERA in his starts during the month of June. Josh Collmenter has had an amazing season thus far and I look for it to continue. He has an ERA sitting at 1.86 for the season. That number decrease to 1.78 during his home starts. He has pitched scoreless outings in 7 out of his last 10 starts. Even though his last start was by far his worst of the season, I look for him to bounce back. He allowed 5 runs in 5 innings at home vs. the Giants. I think he will put that behind him and shine today. I say that because it was the second time that a team's second look at him produced mediocre results. This is the first time that the White Sox batters have seen him and I think they will have a hard time hitting off of him. BET UNDER 8
Sunday, June 19, 2011
Last picks: Pirates vs. Indians under 8 runs = WIN (5-1 final score) Record: 5-2
Padres vs. Twins under 7.5 runs = WIN (1-0 final score)
Pirates (Karstens) vs. Indians (Masterson) UNDER 8 RUNS
Jeff Karstens has a very good 2.66 ERA on the season. He has allowed 3 runs or fewer in all of his last 10 starts and allowed 2 runs or fewer in 9 of them. He is on a personal 13.2 scoreless inning streak after pitching shutout performances against the Astros and Diamondbacks. In his last three starts, his ERA is 0.44. Justin Masterson has a respectable 3.16 ERA on the season. He has a 3.25 ERA during home starts and a 3.48 ERA in his last three starts. The Pirates having serious issues scoring runs as they have scored two total runs in their last 3 interleague games, with one of the two runs coming last night. Both teams have good starting pitchers and decent bullpens, which should let this game easily go under. BET UNDER 8.
Padres vs. Twins under 7.5 runs = WIN (1-0 final score)
Pirates (Karstens) vs. Indians (Masterson) UNDER 8 RUNS
Jeff Karstens has a very good 2.66 ERA on the season. He has allowed 3 runs or fewer in all of his last 10 starts and allowed 2 runs or fewer in 9 of them. He is on a personal 13.2 scoreless inning streak after pitching shutout performances against the Astros and Diamondbacks. In his last three starts, his ERA is 0.44. Justin Masterson has a respectable 3.16 ERA on the season. He has a 3.25 ERA during home starts and a 3.48 ERA in his last three starts. The Pirates having serious issues scoring runs as they have scored two total runs in their last 3 interleague games, with one of the two runs coming last night. Both teams have good starting pitchers and decent bullpens, which should let this game easily go under. BET UNDER 8.
Saturday, June 18, 2011
Padres (Stauffer) vs. Twins (Baker) UNDER 7.5 RUNS (Pick #2 for the day)
Tim Stauffer has allowed no runs in his last 15 innings against the Nationals and Rockies. He has a 3.28 ERA on the season and that increases slightly to 3.62 on the road. He has pitched 3 scoreless outings in his last 10 starts and has been fairly consistent. I think he has found his grove in his last two starts and I expect him to be solid tonight against an injury-plagued Twins lineup. The Twins have very good hitters on the disabled list that will not play tonight, like Jason Kubel, Denard Span, Jim Thome and Justin Morneau. The Padres have one of MLB's best bullpens. Scott Baker has a 3.55 ERA on the season and believe it or not, but his ERA is exactly the same at home as well. He has a solid 3.27 ERA in his last 3 starts and should have plenty of momentum coming into this start, after pitching a complete game against the power hitting Rangers, allowing only 5 hits and one run. Even though the Padres don't have very many injuries, they have struggled at times during the season to score runs and they have a relatively weak lineup. BET UNDER 7.5
Tim Stauffer has allowed no runs in his last 15 innings against the Nationals and Rockies. He has a 3.28 ERA on the season and that increases slightly to 3.62 on the road. He has pitched 3 scoreless outings in his last 10 starts and has been fairly consistent. I think he has found his grove in his last two starts and I expect him to be solid tonight against an injury-plagued Twins lineup. The Twins have very good hitters on the disabled list that will not play tonight, like Jason Kubel, Denard Span, Jim Thome and Justin Morneau. The Padres have one of MLB's best bullpens. Scott Baker has a 3.55 ERA on the season and believe it or not, but his ERA is exactly the same at home as well. He has a solid 3.27 ERA in his last 3 starts and should have plenty of momentum coming into this start, after pitching a complete game against the power hitting Rangers, allowing only 5 hits and one run. Even though the Padres don't have very many injuries, they have struggled at times during the season to score runs and they have a relatively weak lineup. BET UNDER 7.5
Last pick: Blue Jays vs. Reds under 9.5 runs = WIN (3-2 final score) Record: 3-2
Pirates (Maholm) vs. Indians (Carrasco) UNDER 8 RUNS
Paul Maholm has a solid 3.12 ERA on the season and has been on fire lately. He has pitched 13 scoreless innings in his last two starts against the Mets and Diamondbacks. In fact in 3 out of his last 4 starts, he has allowed no runs. He has allowed 3 runs or less in 8 out of his last 10 starts and has been fairly consistent this season. In 12 innings pitched against the Indians, he has a solid 3.75 ERA. The Pirates have a very good bullpen, which should be able to back up Maholm after he leaves. Carlos Carrasco has an ERA slightly over 4 for the season, but he too has been hot lately. He has gone 15.1 innings pitching scoreless baseball against the Twins and Yankees. He has a 2.11 ERA in his last 3 starts. The Indians have a good bullpen as well, if needed. I like this play because both pitchers have not allowed a run in their last two starts and both teams have good bullpens. Good pitching beats good hitting in this game. BET UNDER 8
Pirates (Maholm) vs. Indians (Carrasco) UNDER 8 RUNS
Paul Maholm has a solid 3.12 ERA on the season and has been on fire lately. He has pitched 13 scoreless innings in his last two starts against the Mets and Diamondbacks. In fact in 3 out of his last 4 starts, he has allowed no runs. He has allowed 3 runs or less in 8 out of his last 10 starts and has been fairly consistent this season. In 12 innings pitched against the Indians, he has a solid 3.75 ERA. The Pirates have a very good bullpen, which should be able to back up Maholm after he leaves. Carlos Carrasco has an ERA slightly over 4 for the season, but he too has been hot lately. He has gone 15.1 innings pitching scoreless baseball against the Twins and Yankees. He has a 2.11 ERA in his last 3 starts. The Indians have a good bullpen as well, if needed. I like this play because both pitchers have not allowed a run in their last two starts and both teams have good bullpens. Good pitching beats good hitting in this game. BET UNDER 8
Friday, June 17, 2011
Last picks: Marlins vs. Phillies under 7 runs = LOSS (5-4 final score) Record: 2-2
Red Sox vs. Rays under 7.5 runs = WIN (3-0 final score)
Blue Jays (Reyes) vs. Reds (Leake) UNDER 9.5 RUNS
Jo-Jo Reyes might not seem like the best pitcher to go with for an under play, but he has been relatively consistent and has decent numbers. He has a 4.30 ERA overall and a 4.28 road ERA. I think he will have a solid outing tonight because he faces tough competition almost every time he pitches against AL teams. Being in the AL East, he faces the tough lineups of the Rays, Red Sox and Yankees and has a decent ERA. The Reds have a very good hitting lineup also that matches up almost to the ones in the AL East, so I look for him to have a quality start. Mike Leake has a decent 4.06 ERA on the season, but is 2-0 with a 2.05 ERA in his last 3 starts. He had a stint in the minor leagues to work on his location and now he is doing great back in the Majors. The posted total at 9.5 is a high number and while these are not two of the best pitchers in MLB, I think they can pitch well enough to limit the total runs to less than 9. BET UNDER 9.5
Red Sox vs. Rays under 7.5 runs = WIN (3-0 final score)
Blue Jays (Reyes) vs. Reds (Leake) UNDER 9.5 RUNS
Jo-Jo Reyes might not seem like the best pitcher to go with for an under play, but he has been relatively consistent and has decent numbers. He has a 4.30 ERA overall and a 4.28 road ERA. I think he will have a solid outing tonight because he faces tough competition almost every time he pitches against AL teams. Being in the AL East, he faces the tough lineups of the Rays, Red Sox and Yankees and has a decent ERA. The Reds have a very good hitting lineup also that matches up almost to the ones in the AL East, so I look for him to have a quality start. Mike Leake has a decent 4.06 ERA on the season, but is 2-0 with a 2.05 ERA in his last 3 starts. He had a stint in the minor leagues to work on his location and now he is doing great back in the Majors. The posted total at 9.5 is a high number and while these are not two of the best pitchers in MLB, I think they can pitch well enough to limit the total runs to less than 9. BET UNDER 9.5
Wednesday, June 15, 2011
Red Sox (Beckett) vs. Rays (Hellickson) UNDER 7.5 RUNS (Pick #2 for the day)
Josh Beckett is 5-2 with a 2.06 ERA and has been the Red Sox best and most consistent starter throughout the year. He has a 2.82 ERA at home, has had 3 scoreless outings in his last 10 starts and has allowed 2 runs or less in 8 of his last 10 starts. He also has a respectable 3.43 ERA vs. the Rays in over 100 innings pitched against them. Jeremy Hellickson is 7-4 with a 3.03 ERA on the season and has an even better ERA at home, currently sitting at 2.20 ERA. He had a tough start at the Orioles in his last outing, but I expect him to bounce back strong here at home. In fact in his last 16 innings pitched at home he has allowed just 7 hits and 0 earned runs against the Indians and Orioles. He has shined at home and that is why I expect him to bounce back here in this spot. BET UNDER 7.5
Josh Beckett is 5-2 with a 2.06 ERA and has been the Red Sox best and most consistent starter throughout the year. He has a 2.82 ERA at home, has had 3 scoreless outings in his last 10 starts and has allowed 2 runs or less in 8 of his last 10 starts. He also has a respectable 3.43 ERA vs. the Rays in over 100 innings pitched against them. Jeremy Hellickson is 7-4 with a 3.03 ERA on the season and has an even better ERA at home, currently sitting at 2.20 ERA. He had a tough start at the Orioles in his last outing, but I expect him to bounce back strong here at home. In fact in his last 16 innings pitched at home he has allowed just 7 hits and 0 earned runs against the Indians and Orioles. He has shined at home and that is why I expect him to bounce back here in this spot. BET UNDER 7.5
Last pick: Mets vs. Braves under 7 runs = PUSH (4-3 final score) Record: 1-1
Marlins (Sanchez) vs. Phillies (Halladay) UNDER 7 RUNS
Anibal Sanchez is 6-1 with a 3.06 ERA on the season. His ERA is even better on the road, sitting at 2.93. In his last 10 starts, 4 of them have been shutouts, including a complete game shutout at home vs. the Rockies and one in San Francisco. With Josh Johnson on the disabled list, he is the Marlins best starting pitcher. While doing research, I found an article describing how Sanchez asked his coach if he could pitch against Halladay because he is up for the challenge. I believe this could provide him with some extra motivation also. Roy Halladay, on the other hand has been of the best pitchers the past few years. He is 9-3 with a 2.39 ERA this season. He has a 2.34 ERA at home and 9 out of his last 10 starts, he has allowed 3 runs or less. Halladay also has an excellent 2.13 ERA in 55 innings pitched against the Marlins. Another thing to mention is that this is the second game in the doubleheader and I believe the hitters might be a little tired from playing earlier, giving the pitchers an advantage. BET UNDER 7.
Marlins (Sanchez) vs. Phillies (Halladay) UNDER 7 RUNS
Anibal Sanchez is 6-1 with a 3.06 ERA on the season. His ERA is even better on the road, sitting at 2.93. In his last 10 starts, 4 of them have been shutouts, including a complete game shutout at home vs. the Rockies and one in San Francisco. With Josh Johnson on the disabled list, he is the Marlins best starting pitcher. While doing research, I found an article describing how Sanchez asked his coach if he could pitch against Halladay because he is up for the challenge. I believe this could provide him with some extra motivation also. Roy Halladay, on the other hand has been of the best pitchers the past few years. He is 9-3 with a 2.39 ERA this season. He has a 2.34 ERA at home and 9 out of his last 10 starts, he has allowed 3 runs or less. Halladay also has an excellent 2.13 ERA in 55 innings pitched against the Marlins. Another thing to mention is that this is the second game in the doubleheader and I believe the hitters might be a little tired from playing earlier, giving the pitchers an advantage. BET UNDER 7.
Tuesday, June 14, 2011
Last pick: Mariners vs. Tigers under 7 runs = LOSS (7-3 final score) Record: 1-1
Mets (Niese) vs. Braves (Jurrjens) UNDER 7 RUNS
Jonathon Niese has a 1.76 ERA in his last two starts, at the Brewers (a very good hitting team) allowing only one run in 7.2 innings and at home vs these Braves allowing two runs in 7.2 innings. In 8 of his last 10 starts, he has allowed 2 or less earned runs, which is very impressive. The Braves have Jason Heyward and Martin Prado out of the starting lineup, so the Braves offense is a little weakened. Niese also has a 2.88 ERA in 34.1 innings pitched against the Braves. Jair Jurrjens is 8-2 with a 1.82 ERA on the season, which is incredible. In 30 innings pitched at home this season, he has a 1.50 ERA. He has allowed 3 earned runs or less in all 10 of his last starts and has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 9 of them. In 77.1 innings pitched against the Mets, he has a 8-3 record with a 2.68 ERA. Bet the UNDER 7 RUNS.
Mets (Niese) vs. Braves (Jurrjens) UNDER 7 RUNS
Jonathon Niese has a 1.76 ERA in his last two starts, at the Brewers (a very good hitting team) allowing only one run in 7.2 innings and at home vs these Braves allowing two runs in 7.2 innings. In 8 of his last 10 starts, he has allowed 2 or less earned runs, which is very impressive. The Braves have Jason Heyward and Martin Prado out of the starting lineup, so the Braves offense is a little weakened. Niese also has a 2.88 ERA in 34.1 innings pitched against the Braves. Jair Jurrjens is 8-2 with a 1.82 ERA on the season, which is incredible. In 30 innings pitched at home this season, he has a 1.50 ERA. He has allowed 3 earned runs or less in all 10 of his last starts and has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 9 of them. In 77.1 innings pitched against the Mets, he has a 8-3 record with a 2.68 ERA. Bet the UNDER 7 RUNS.
Sunday, June 12, 2011
Last pick: A's vs. White Sox under 8 runs = WIN (3-2 final score) Record: 1-0
Mariners (Hernandez) vs. Detroit (Porcello) UNDER 7 RUNS
Felix Hernandez has a decent road ERA of 3.35 and has had good performances on the road, except in his last start when he got hammered by the White Sox for 5 runs in less than 7 innings. I expect the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner to come back with a much better start against the Tigers because he has had success against them in the past. In 63 innings pitched against Detroit, he is 7-2 with a 2.71 ERA. Rick Porcello has been hot of late, pitching 12.2 innings and allowing only 3 earned runs and he gets to face a struggling Mariners lineup in which he has dominated in the past. Rick in 24.1 innings pitched against Seattle has an undefeated record of 3-0 with a 2.96 ERA. I look for this game to be a pitcher's duel and to be a low scoring affair. BET UNDER 7.
Mariners (Hernandez) vs. Detroit (Porcello) UNDER 7 RUNS
Felix Hernandez has a decent road ERA of 3.35 and has had good performances on the road, except in his last start when he got hammered by the White Sox for 5 runs in less than 7 innings. I expect the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner to come back with a much better start against the Tigers because he has had success against them in the past. In 63 innings pitched against Detroit, he is 7-2 with a 2.71 ERA. Rick Porcello has been hot of late, pitching 12.2 innings and allowing only 3 earned runs and he gets to face a struggling Mariners lineup in which he has dominated in the past. Rick in 24.1 innings pitched against Seattle has an undefeated record of 3-0 with a 2.96 ERA. I look for this game to be a pitcher's duel and to be a low scoring affair. BET UNDER 7.
Saturday, June 11, 2011
Introduction
So I will keep a simple win-loss record after every pick that I give. I will not include units because that starts to get confusing for me. Plus, all the picks are rated the same weight, because I only give picks that I am most sure about. This means that I won't give you a pick and say I am not totally sure about this and only bet like half the amount you usually bet. Every pick by default will be bet it a constant money amount, as I feel the same confidence for every pick that I give here. But I do recommend not betting much more than 5% of your bankroll on each play, but determining the exact amount is your decision and depends on how much trust you put in me. I am by no means forcing anyone to follow my plays, you can use this just as reference for your own picks, but follow at your own risk. But I will try my best to have a winning percentage over 50%, so as anyone who has been following me in the long term will make a profit. Also, please do not get angry if you lose a large chunk of your bankroll from one bet, because I will lose, there is no way that I will always win. So be mindful of this when deciding if you will follow my pick and then deciding how much to bet on it if you choose to follow. Every pick will have a short explanation of why I like the play. I also do not bet at a sports book myself, so I use my friend's free betting site for the total run line numbers. I think those numbers are about the same as numbers at sports betting sites, but I'm not sure. Please let me know if the total run numbers for games are vastly different than the numbers that I am getting. Thanks!
Athletics (Gonzalez) vs. White Sox (Danks) UNDER 8 RUNS
Gio Gonzalez has a pretty respectable 2.62 ERA on the season and his road ERA is 2.84, which is also decent. Excluding one start at the Angels, he has allowed 3 runs or less on the road. The White Sox have been struggling recently batting and the A's bullpen should be able to perform well if called upon after Gonzalez leaves. John Danks is only 1-8 on the season, but his last start was spectacular and that got him his first win of the season. He pitched 7 innings plus of scoreless baseball beating the Mariners. The A's have one of the weakest batting lineups in MLB, in my humble opinion. John Danks is 4-1 with a 2.25 ERA in his last 48 innings pitched against the A's. BET THE UNDER 8.
Gio Gonzalez has a pretty respectable 2.62 ERA on the season and his road ERA is 2.84, which is also decent. Excluding one start at the Angels, he has allowed 3 runs or less on the road. The White Sox have been struggling recently batting and the A's bullpen should be able to perform well if called upon after Gonzalez leaves. John Danks is only 1-8 on the season, but his last start was spectacular and that got him his first win of the season. He pitched 7 innings plus of scoreless baseball beating the Mariners. The A's have one of the weakest batting lineups in MLB, in my humble opinion. John Danks is 4-1 with a 2.25 ERA in his last 48 innings pitched against the A's. BET THE UNDER 8.
My Betting Preferences
I really like to bet the "unders" in MLB games. This means betting under the posted number for both teams for the whole game. I find this the easiest way to win and I have seen that I have been most successful when I bet the under. So every single one of my bets on here will be on the under. Hope that works for everyone.
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