Red Sox (Lester) vs. Phillies (Hamels) UNDER 7 RUNS

Jon Lester has an average 3.66 ERA for this season, but a better 3.11 ERA when he pitches on the road. He has allowed 3 runs or less in each of his last 4 starts and has a good 2.45 ERA in his last 3 starts. I think he will be very motivated to go pitch a good game, so his team does not get swept by the Phillies today. He also has had good success against the Phillies posting a remarkable 0.64 ERA in 14 innings pitched against them. The only batter in the Phillies lineup that has hit Lester well is Ibanez who is 4-9, but other than that Ryan Howard and Chase Utley are hit less in 6 at-bats and Jimmy Rollins only has one hit in 5 at-bats. Cole Hamels has a good 2.49 ERA for the season and a 2.73 ERA during his home starts. He has allowed 3 runs or less in 9 out of his last 10 starts. He has also been good as of late, posting a 1.45 ERA in the month of June. The Red Sox have had some trouble scoring runs lately and Hamels has dominated them in the past, with a 1.71 ERA in 21 innings pitched against them. The first two games of this series had a combined 5 and 3 runs total and this one is low scoring also. BET UNDER 7

Last picks: Red Sox vs. Phillies under 7 runs = WIN (5-0 final score)       Record: 13-4
                    Reds vs. Rays under 7 runs = PUSH (4-3 final score)
                    Braves vs. Mariners under 6 runs = LOSS (5-4 final score)


There will be no play today because there are not any games that I really like. The next play(s) will probably be coming tomorrow, depending on the teams and pitching match-ups. Also, I just wanted to add a quick announcement. I will be making my plays earlier than before, at least 3 hours before the respective game starts, except for the early games, as I am not a morning person. And don't forgot to bookmark the page if you are interested and make sure to check back. Lastly, I just want to say thank you to my followers so far and I hope I can continue this successful winning streak.

Braves (Hanson) vs. Mariners (Pineda) UNDER 6 RUNS (Pick #3 for the day)

Tommy Hanson has a 2.48 ERA this season and a 2.57 ERA when he pitches on the road. He is coming off a shoulder injury, but has been pain free, so we should see him be his old self. He has thrown 2 scoreless starts out of his last 10 and has allowed 2 runs or less in 9 of them. He has allowed just one run combined over his last 13 innings on the road at the Astros and Marlins. He also has a 1.42 ERA in his last 3 starts and should be able to dominate this relatively weak Mariners lineup. Michael Pineda has a 2.45 ERA and that drops to 1.99 when he pitches at home. He has thrown 3 scoreless starts out of his last 10, with one of them coming at home vs. the Twins. He has allowed 3 runs or less in 9 out of his last 10 starts. He also has a good 2.95 ERA in his last 3 starts and comes into this start having a 0.69 ERA against the National League after two starts against NL teams, the Phillies and Nationals. I look for him to continue his strong season vs. the Braves tonight. BET UNDER 6

Reds (Cueto) vs. Rays (Price) UNDER 7 RUNS (Pick #2 for the day)

Johnny Cueto has a 1.63 ERA for the season and a 1.32 ERA during his road starts. He has allowed 3 runs or less in all 9 of his starts this season and has thrown 3 shutouts on the road. He also has an extremely low ERA of 0.43 in his last 3 starts. He has become the ace of the Reds pitching staff this season. He is facing a Rays team that struggles to score runs at home, evident by being shutout yesterday against the Reds. David Price has a good 3.51 ERA this season and a slightly lower 3.40 ERA during his home starts. He has allowed 3 runs or less in 7 out of his last 10 starts overall and has thrown 2 home shutouts in his last 10 starts vs. the Blue Jays and Indians. It seems he struggles at home vs. the very tough lineups of the American League. He gave up 3 runs in just 5 innings vs. the Red Sox, 3 runs in 8 innings vs. the Rangers and 5 runs in 5 innings vs. the Yankees. But then against what I would call the "average" lineups, he did very well. Allowing 0 earned runs in 8.2 innings vs. the Blue Jays and 0 earned vs. the Indians over 7 innings. I would consider the Rays a more "average" lineup, so I expect Price to have a strong outing tonight. BET UNDER 7

Braves vs. Mariners under 6.5 runs = WIN (3-1 final score)       Record: 12-3


Red Sox (Beckett) vs. Phillies (Lee) UNDER 7 RUNS

Josh Beckett has an incredible 1.86 ERA for this season and a slightly higher 2.35 ERA during his road starts. He has thrown 4 scoreless starts out of his last 10, including his last start at the Rays which was a complete game shutout where he allowed one hit. He has allowed 3 runs or less in each of his last 9 starts and 2 runs or less in 8 of them. He also has a 2.05 ERA in his last 3 starts and a ERA under 4 lifetime vs. the Phillies. Even though his start at the Rays was almost 2 weeks ago, I think he comes back strong. He was not injured, he was just sick, so it should not effect his pitching.Cliff Lee has a 2.87 ERA for the season and a 1.88 ERA at home. He also has pitched 4 scoreless starts out of his last 10 and has allowed 3 runs or fewer in 8 of them. He has thrown 3 shutouts in his last 4 starts, including a 7 inning shutout against the Dodgers and a complete game shutout vs. the Marlins, both at home. In his last 3 starts he has a ERA of 0.35, which is just ridiculous. BET UNDER 7

 Last pick: Athletics vs. Phillies under 7 runs = WIN (3-1 final score)       Record: 11-3

Braves (Beachy) vs. Mariners (Bedard) UNDER 6.5

Brandon Beachy has a good 3.22 ERA on the season and a much better 1.50 ERA during his road starts. Even though he has missed a large part of the season and has started only 9 games, I still think Beachy can pitch well tonight in Seattle as he is a good strikeout pitcher. In his 9 starts, he pitched 2 scoreless starts and has allowed 2 runs or less in 6 of them. He has only pitched three road starts, but he has done very well in all of them, allowing 1,0 and 2 runs to the Brewers, Dodgers and Giants respectively pitching 6 innings in all three of those starts. Also, in his last start, which was his first start back from the disabled list, he pitched well allowing 1 run vs. the Blue Jays, so it looks like he is completely healthy and in good condition after his oblique injury. Erik Bedard has an impressive 2.93 ERA on the season and that rises a little to 3.70 during his home starts. I don't really care if his home ERA is not spectacular because Bedard is locked in right now, he has not allowed more than 3 runs in any of his last 10 starts, and has allowed 2 runs or less in 9 of them. He also has pitched 4 scoreless starts out of his last 10, including one at home vs. the Angels, in his most recent home start. He has an amazing 1.00 ERA in his last 3 starts and has pitched 3 scoreless innings vs. the Braves in his career. Both pitchers are good and both lineups have struggled to score runs recently, so I look for this to be a pitcher's duel. BET UNDER 6.5

Last pick: Indians vs. Giants under 6.5 runs = WIN (1-0 final score)       Record: 10-3


Athletics (Outman) vs. Phillies (Halladay) UNDER 7 RUNS

Josh Outman has a 2.86 ERA on the season and a 3.74 ERA during his road starts. His ERA on the road is only that high because of one bad start he had in Boston, when the tough Red Sox hitters scored 4 runs off of him in not even 3 innings. Other than that start, he allowed 3,1,1 runs in his 3 road starts. He also has a ERA of 1.89 in his last 3 starts and has given up just one run in his last 13 innings pitched. The Phillies have had some trouble scoring runs, as they have only scored 1 run in each of the first two games of this series. Roy Halladay has a ERA of 2.51 on the season and 2.64 at home. He has been consistent, allowing 3 runs or less in 8 out of his last 10 starts. Halladay has also allowed 2 runs or less in 3 out of his last 5 home starts and has a 2.25 ERA in his last 3 starts. The Athletics do not have a very good lineup, so I expect Halladay to have a strong start today. BET UNDER 7

Last picks: Rays vs. Astros under 7 runs = WIN (5-1 final score)       Record: 9-3
                 Indians vs. Giants under 7 runs = PUSH (4-3 final score)


Indians (Masterson) vs. Giants (Cain) UNDER 6.5 RUNS

Justin Masterson has a 3.18 ERA on the season and an even better 3.03 ERA during his road starts. His ERA in his last 3 starts is even better than those numbers, currently sitting at 2.79. He has allowed 2 runs or less in 3 out of his last 4 road starts. He has been fairly consistent and I expect him to have a quality start today. Matt Cain has a 3.44 ERA for the season, but he excels at home, evident by his 2.68 ERA during his home starts. His ERA through his last 3 starts is also solid sitting at 2.78 right now. He has allowed 3 runs or less in 4 out of his last 5 home starts. He is showing signs of improving lately, allowing only 1 run in 3 out of his last 4 starts overall, with two of the starts coming at home. BET UNDER 6.5

Indians (Carrasco) vs. Giants (Sanchez) UNDER 7 RUNS (Pick #2 for the day)

Carlos Carrasco has an average 3.87 ERA for the season, but he has been on fire lately, with a 0.42 ERA in his last 3 starts, including taking a no hitter through 5 innings in his last start. He also has been a better pitcher on the road, sporting a 2.88 ERA there. He has allowed 3 runs or less in his last 5 road starts and has allowed 2 runs or less in 4 of them. And this came against tough lineups like the Yankees, Rays and Twins. The Giants have had some troubles scoring runs this season and they will have a difficult job of doing that tonight. Jonathan Sanchez also has a pretty average ERA of 3.71 for the season. At home that number is even better, at 3.23. He has allowed 3 runs or fewer in his last 4 home starts. Even though Sanchez walks a lot of batters, he is better at home and I expect him to do good against this Indians lineup. He has already faced them once before and pitched 7.2 innings and allowed only 1 run, good for a lifetime ERA of 1.17 against them. BET UNDER 7

Last pick: Diamondbacks vs. Royals under 8.5 runs = WIN (5-3 final score)       Record: 8-3


Rays (Shields) vs. Astros (Rodriguez) UNDER 7 RUNS

James Shields has a spectacular 2.40 ERA for the season and that is slightly higher at 3.28 on the road. He has a 3.10 ERA in June and a 1.08 ERA in his last 3 starts. He has pitched 3 scoreless starts out of his last 10 and has allowed 3 runs or less in 9 of them. He has allowed 3 runs or less in 4 out of his last 5 road starts. His confidence level is high coming into Houston, with the Astros not scoring very many runs and the Rays having a strong bullpen. Wandy Rodriguez has a 2.88 ERA on the season, a 2.45 ERA at home and a 1.00 ERA in his last 3 starts. He has pitched 4 scoreless starts out of his last 10 and allowed 3 runs or less in 8 of them. Since he came off the disabled list, he has thrown 6 scoreless innings against the Dodgers and Braves. It looks like he is 100% healthy now and is able to pitch much better and more consistent than before. BET UNDER 7

Last pick: Angels vs. Marlins under 6.5 runs = WIN (2-1 final score)       Record: 7-3


Diamondbacks (Hudson) vs. Royals (Paulino) UNDER 8.5 RUNS

Daniel Hudson has a good 3.56 ERA for the season and his ERA is a little worse on the road at 4.09. These numbers might not seem too good, but Hudson has been on fire as of late. He has a 1.23 ERA in his last three starts, all appearances where he allowed one run, including his last start against the White Sox which was a complete game. He has been more consistent as of late and I think he has found his groove. Felipe Paulino has an average 4.10 ERA for the season, but that drops to a respectable 3.50 at home. But he too has been good of late, with a 2.78 ERA in his June starts. He had a rough start his last time out vs. the Cardinals where he went 6 innings and allowed 4 runs, but I think he will bounce back strong here at home. In his last 14.1 innings pitched at home (with the Rockies and Royals), he has allowed just 2 earned runs including 5 shutout innings vs. the Angels and 1 earned run over 6.2 innings vs. the Blue Jays. The Diamondbacks struggle to score runs when they are away from Chase Field. The Royals also have a pretty good bullpen if Paulino needs some help getting through the game. BET UNDER 8.5

Last picks: Pirates vs. Indians under 8 runs = WIN (5-2 final score)       Record: 6-3
                 White Sox vs. Diamondbacks under 8 runs = LOSS (8-2 final score)


Angels (Weaver) vs. Marlins (Sanchez) UNDER 6.5 RUNS

Jered Weaver has had a spectacular season so far, with his ERA sitting at 2.06. That lowers to 1.94 during his road starts. He has thrown 3 scoreless starts in his last 10. He has thrown 2 straight complete games during his last 2 road starts. He pitched a 2-hit shutout at the Twins on 5/28 and then in his last start pitched a 5-hit shutout at the Mariners, giving him an 18 inning scoreless run on the road. He also has a 1.90 ERA in his last 3 starts spanning almost 24 innings. Additionally Weaver is 5-1 with a 2.36 ERA in his last nine road interleague starts. The Marlins have lost 10 straight games and have a struggling lineup. Anibal Sanchez has a very good 3.02 ERA on the season and that rises a little bit to 3.18 at home. He has also thrown 3 scoreless starts out of his last 10. He has not lost since April 10 and he pitched the only game won this whole month by the Marlins. The posted total for this game is low, but both pitchers are very good and both lineups are about average. BET UNDER 6.5

White Sox (Humber) vs. Diamondbacks (Collmenter) UNDER 8 RUNS (Pick #2 for the day)

Philip Humber has an ERA under 3, currently sitting at 2.95. That ERA increases slightly to 3.38 on the road. He has been fairly consistent, allowing 3 runs or less in 8 out of his last 10 starts. He also pitched on the road at the Yankees, allowing 1 hit and no runs for seven innings. He has a 2.45 ERA in his starts during the month of June. Josh Collmenter has had an amazing season thus far and I look for it to continue. He has an ERA sitting at 1.86 for the season. That number decrease to 1.78 during his home starts. He has pitched scoreless outings in 7 out of his last 10 starts. Even though his last start was by far his worst of the season, I look for him to bounce back. He allowed 5 runs in 5 innings at home vs. the Giants. I think he will put that behind him and shine today. I say that because it was the second time that a team's second look at him produced mediocre results. This is the first time that the White Sox batters have seen him and I think they will have a hard time hitting off of him. BET UNDER 8

Last picks: Pirates vs. Indians under 8 runs = WIN (5-1 final score)       Record: 5-2
                 Padres vs. Twins under 7.5 runs = WIN (1-0 final score)


Pirates (Karstens) vs. Indians (Masterson) UNDER 8 RUNS

Jeff Karstens has a very good 2.66 ERA on the season. He has allowed 3 runs or fewer in all of his last 10 starts and allowed 2 runs or fewer in 9 of them. He is on a personal 13.2 scoreless inning streak after pitching shutout performances against the Astros and Diamondbacks. In his last three starts, his ERA is 0.44. Justin Masterson has a respectable 3.16 ERA on the season. He has a 3.25 ERA during home starts and a 3.48 ERA in his last three starts. The Pirates having serious issues scoring runs as they have scored two total runs in their last 3 interleague games, with one of the two runs coming last night. Both teams have good starting pitchers and decent bullpens, which should let this game easily go under. BET UNDER 8.

Padres (Stauffer) vs. Twins (Baker) UNDER 7.5 RUNS (Pick #2 for the day)

Tim Stauffer has allowed no runs in his last 15 innings against the Nationals and Rockies. He has a 3.28 ERA on the season and that increases slightly to 3.62 on the road. He has pitched 3 scoreless outings in his last 10 starts and has been fairly consistent. I think he has found his grove in his last two starts and I expect him to be solid tonight against an injury-plagued Twins lineup. The Twins have very good hitters on the disabled list that will not play tonight, like Jason Kubel, Denard Span, Jim Thome and Justin Morneau. The Padres have one of MLB's best bullpens. Scott Baker has a 3.55 ERA on the season and believe it or not, but his ERA is exactly the same at home as well. He has a solid 3.27 ERA in his last 3 starts and should have plenty of momentum coming into this start, after pitching a complete game against the power hitting Rangers, allowing only 5 hits and one run. Even though the Padres don't have very many injuries, they have struggled at times during the season to score runs and they have a relatively weak lineup. BET UNDER 7.5

Last pick: Blue Jays vs. Reds under 9.5 runs = WIN (3-2 final score)       Record: 3-2


Pirates (Maholm) vs. Indians (Carrasco) UNDER 8 RUNS

Paul Maholm has a solid 3.12 ERA on the season and has been on fire lately. He has pitched 13 scoreless innings in his last two starts against the Mets and Diamondbacks. In fact in 3 out of his last 4 starts, he has allowed no runs. He has allowed 3 runs or less in 8 out of his last 10 starts and has been fairly consistent this season. In 12 innings pitched against the Indians, he has a solid 3.75 ERA. The Pirates have a very good bullpen, which should be able to back up Maholm after he leaves. Carlos Carrasco has an ERA slightly over 4 for the season, but he too has been hot lately. He has gone 15.1 innings pitching scoreless baseball against the Twins and Yankees. He has a 2.11 ERA in his last 3 starts. The Indians have a good bullpen as well, if needed. I like this play because both pitchers have not allowed a run in their last two starts and both teams have good bullpens. Good pitching beats good hitting in this game. BET UNDER 8

Last picks: Marlins vs. Phillies under 7 runs = LOSS (5-4 final score)       Record: 2-2
                 Red Sox vs. Rays under 7.5 runs = WIN (3-0 final score)               


Blue Jays (Reyes) vs. Reds (Leake) UNDER 9.5 RUNS

Jo-Jo Reyes might not seem like the best pitcher to go with for an under play, but he has been relatively consistent and has decent numbers. He has a 4.30 ERA overall and a 4.28 road ERA. I think he will have a solid outing tonight because he faces tough competition almost every time he pitches against AL teams. Being in the AL East, he faces the tough lineups of the Rays, Red Sox and Yankees and has a decent ERA. The Reds have a very good hitting lineup also that matches up almost to the ones in the AL East, so I look for him to have a quality start. Mike Leake has a decent 4.06 ERA on the season, but is 2-0 with a 2.05 ERA in his last 3 starts. He had a stint in the minor leagues to work on his location and now he is doing great back in the Majors. The posted total at 9.5 is a high number and while these are not two of the best pitchers in MLB, I think they can pitch well enough to limit the total runs to less than 9. BET UNDER 9.5

Red Sox (Beckett) vs. Rays (Hellickson) UNDER 7.5 RUNS (Pick #2 for the day)

Josh Beckett is 5-2 with a 2.06 ERA and has been the Red Sox best and most consistent starter throughout the year. He has a 2.82 ERA at home, has had 3 scoreless outings in his last 10 starts and has allowed 2 runs or less in 8 of his last 10 starts. He also has a respectable 3.43 ERA vs. the Rays in over 100 innings pitched against them. Jeremy Hellickson is 7-4 with a 3.03 ERA on the season and has an even better ERA at home, currently sitting at 2.20 ERA. He had a tough start at the Orioles in his last outing, but I expect him to bounce back strong here at home. In fact in his last 16 innings pitched at home he has allowed just 7 hits and 0 earned runs against the Indians and Orioles. He has shined at home and that is why I expect him to bounce back here in this spot. BET UNDER 7.5

Last pick: Mets vs. Braves under 7 runs = PUSH (4-3 final score)       Record: 1-1


Marlins (Sanchez) vs. Phillies (Halladay) UNDER 7 RUNS

Anibal Sanchez is 6-1 with a 3.06 ERA on the season. His ERA is even better on the road, sitting at 2.93. In his last 10 starts, 4 of them have been shutouts, including a complete game shutout at home vs. the Rockies and one in San Francisco. With Josh Johnson on the disabled list, he is the Marlins best starting pitcher. While doing research, I found an article describing how Sanchez asked his coach if he could pitch against Halladay because he is up for the challenge. I believe this could provide him with some extra motivation also. Roy Halladay, on the other hand has been of the best pitchers the past few years. He is 9-3 with a 2.39 ERA this season. He has a 2.34 ERA at home and 9 out of his last 10 starts, he has allowed 3 runs or less. Halladay also has an excellent 2.13 ERA in 55 innings pitched against the Marlins. Another thing to mention is that this is the second game in the doubleheader and I believe the hitters might be a little tired from playing earlier, giving the pitchers an advantage. BET UNDER 7.

Last pick: Mariners vs. Tigers under 7 runs = LOSS (7-3 final score)       Record: 1-1


Mets (Niese) vs. Braves (Jurrjens) UNDER 7 RUNS

Jonathon Niese has a 1.76 ERA in his last two starts, at the Brewers (a very good hitting team) allowing only one run in 7.2 innings and at home vs these Braves allowing two runs in 7.2 innings. In 8 of his last 10 starts, he has allowed 2 or less earned runs, which is very impressive. The Braves have Jason Heyward and Martin Prado out of the starting lineup, so the Braves offense is a little weakened. Niese also has a 2.88 ERA in 34.1 innings pitched against the Braves. Jair Jurrjens is 8-2 with a 1.82 ERA on the season, which is incredible. In 30 innings pitched at home this season, he has a 1.50 ERA. He has allowed 3 earned runs or less in all 10 of his last starts and has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 9 of them. In 77.1 innings pitched against the Mets, he has a 8-3 record with a 2.68 ERA. Bet the UNDER 7 RUNS.

Last pick: A's vs. White Sox under 8 runs = WIN (3-2 final score)       Record: 1-0


Mariners (Hernandez) vs. Detroit (Porcello) UNDER 7 RUNS

Felix Hernandez has a decent road ERA of 3.35 and has had good performances on the road, except in his last start when he got hammered by the White Sox for 5 runs in less than 7 innings. I expect the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner to come back with a much better start against the Tigers because he has had success against them in the past. In 63 innings pitched against Detroit, he is 7-2 with a 2.71 ERA. Rick Porcello has been hot of late, pitching 12.2 innings and allowing only 3 earned runs and he gets to face a struggling Mariners lineup in which he has dominated in the past. Rick in 24.1 innings pitched against Seattle has an undefeated record of 3-0 with a 2.96 ERA. I look for this game to be a pitcher's duel and to be a low scoring affair. BET UNDER 7.

Introduction

So I will keep a simple win-loss record after every pick that I give. I will not include units because that starts to get confusing for me. Plus, all the picks are rated the same weight, because I only give picks that I am most sure about. This means that I won't give you a pick and say I am not totally sure about this and only bet like half the amount you usually bet. Every pick by default will be bet it a constant money amount, as I feel the same confidence for every pick that I give here. But I do recommend not betting much more than 5% of your bankroll on each play, but determining the exact amount is your decision and depends on how much trust you put in me. I am by no means forcing anyone to follow my plays, you can use this just as reference for your own picks, but follow at your own risk. But I will try my best to have a winning percentage over 50%, so as anyone who has been following me in the long term will make a profit. Also, please do not get angry if you lose a large chunk of your bankroll from one bet, because I will lose, there is no way that I will always win. So be mindful of this when deciding if you will follow my pick and then deciding how much to bet on it if you choose to follow. Every pick will have a short explanation of why I like the play. I also do not bet at a sports book myself, so I use my friend's free betting site for the total run line numbers. I think those numbers are about the same as numbers at sports betting sites, but I'm not sure. Please let me know if the total run numbers for games are vastly different than the numbers that I am getting. Thanks!

Athletics (Gonzalez) vs. White Sox (Danks) UNDER 8 RUNS

Gio Gonzalez has a pretty respectable 2.62 ERA on the season and his road ERA is 2.84, which is also decent. Excluding one start at the Angels, he has allowed 3 runs or less on the road. The White Sox have been struggling recently batting and the A's bullpen should be able to perform well if called upon after Gonzalez leaves. John Danks is only 1-8 on the season, but his last start was spectacular and that got him his first win of the season. He pitched 7 innings plus of scoreless baseball beating the Mariners. The A's have one of the weakest batting lineups in MLB, in my humble opinion. John Danks is 4-1 with a 2.25 ERA in his last 48 innings pitched against the A's. BET THE UNDER 8.

My Betting Preferences

I really like to bet the "unders" in MLB games. This means betting under the posted number for both teams for the whole game. I find this the easiest way to win and I have seen that I have been most successful when I bet the under. So every single one of my bets on here will be on the under. Hope that works for everyone.