I do not like any plays for today and tomorrow I'm on vacation, so I am taking the next 3 weeks off.

Last picks: Braves vs. Phillies under 7 runs = LOSS (14-1 final score)       Record: 19-10
                    Mariners vs. Angels under 6 runs =  PUSH (4-2 final score)


No plays today as I have no opinion about the Home Run Derby. Check back in tomorrow for a possible play on the All Star Game.

Mariners (Hernandez) vs. Angels (Haren) UNDER 6 RUNS

Felix Hernandez has a 3.22 ERA on the season. He has been fairly consistent this season, allowing 3 runs or less in 7 out of his last 10 starts. Pitching on the road in Anaheim today should be fun for him, as he is confident and excels during his road starts. He has allowed 1 run in 3 out of his last 5 road starts. He also has a good 2.66 ERA in his last 3 starts and has pitched well against the Angels hitters. For the players that have seen Hernandez in more than 10 at-bats, he has kept 6 under a .300 average and 2 over that number. Dan Haren has allowed 3 earned runs or less in 8 out of his last 10 starts and has been very good as of late. He has a 1.21 ERA in his last 3 starts, and has not allowed a run in 16.1 innings, spanning his last two home starts vs. the Nationals and Tigers. In those 16.1 innings he allowed only 4 hits. Haren also is a better starter in the daylight, where he is 4-0 with a 1.59 ERA, compared to 5-5 with a 3.52 ERA in starts at night. Lastly, he has a 2.56 ERA in 105.2 innings pitched against the Mariners. BET UNDER 6

Last pick: Twins vs. White Sox under 8.5 runs = WIN (4-3 final score)       Record: 19-9


Braves (Lowe) vs. Phillies (Hamels) UNDER 7 RUNS

Derek Lowe has an average 4.21 ERA on the season, but I still think he has a solid start in Philly today. He has allowed 3 earned runs or less in 7 out of his last 10 starts and is a good pitcher on the road. He threw a shutout in 6.2 innings in Florida and in his last road start he allowed only 1 run in 6 innings to the Mariners. But I think he does good today because he has done very well against the Phillies, in the past 10 years and this season. He has a 2.90 ERA in 102.1 innings pitched against them and pitched a combined 13 innings against them this season allowing a total of only 2 runs. In his start in Philly (like today) he went 6 innings, allowed 2 hits and no runs. In addition to this, the Phillies have had struggles throughout the season to score runs. Cole Hamels has a very good 2.40 ERA on the season and he has been consistently awesome. He has allowed 3 runs or less in each of his last 10 starts and allowed 2 runs or less in 9 of them. He has thrown 2 scoreless starts against the Red Sox and Dodgers, both at home. He has an excellent 1.80 ERA in his last 3 starts and has done fairly well against the Braves, pitching 131.2 innings with a 3.83 ERA. Like the Phillies, the Braves can have troubles scoring some runs. The last three games of this series has stayed under the posted number today and this one will make it 4 in a row. BET UNDER 7

Last pick: A's vs. Rangers under 8.5 runs = LOSS (8-5 final score)       Record: 18-9


Twins (Duensing) vs. White Sox (Buehrle) UNDER 8.5 RUNS

Brian Duensing has a pretty bad 4.25 ERA on the season, but he has been much better as of late. He has a very good 2.18 ERA in his last 3 starts and he is a better pitcher on the road, with a 3.91 ERA. His last 6 starts have been much better, as he has allowed 3 runs or less in 5 of them. He has been very good in his last 2 road starts, pitching a combined 14.2 innings and allowing a total of 1 run against the Royals and Giants. In his last start, he pitched a complete game shutout allowing only 6 hits to the Rays, so he is coming off an excellent start with confidence. Lastly, he has a 2.50 ERA against the White Sox in 36 innings pitched against them. Mark Buehrle has a decent 3.66 ERA on the season, but he too has been slightly better as late, with a 3.26 ERA in his last 3 starts. He is a better pitcher at home, with a 2.83 ERA. He has also allowed no more than 3 runs in any of his last 10 starts. He has pitched 310.1 innings (WOW) against the Twins and has an average 4.03 ERA, but in his last start against them on 6/16 he pitched 7 innings and allowed only 1 run. The Twins are still missing some valuable bats in the line-up, as Span, Morneau, Kubel and Young are all not going to be playing this afternoon.

Last picks: Rays vs. Yankees under 9.5 runs = WIN (5-1 final score)       Record: 18-8
                    Twins vs. White Sox under 8 runs = PUSH (6-2 final score)
                    Mariners vs. Angels under 6 runs = PUSH (5-1 final score)

*Note: I have received some suggestions to continue to write the usual explanations, so originally I was going to stop writing them, but I have decided to continue with them. Thanks to my followers for giving suggestions and I encourage you to continue to give any suggestions/opinions you may have in the future.

 Athletics (Gonzalez) vs. Rangers (Wilson) UNDER 8.5 RUNS

Gio Gonzalez has a good 2.31 ERA on the season and a 2.66 road ERA. He has allowed 3 runs or less in 9 out of his last 10 starts and has also thrown 2 scoreless starts in his last 10. For whatever reason, there is a noticeable difference when Gonzalez pitches at night and when he starts during the day. In the daylight, he has a 2.96 ERA, but when the stadium lights are on, like how they will be tonight, he has a better 1.85 ERA. Gonzalez also has an impressive 0.82 ERA in his last 3 starts. Finally, in 45.1 innings pitched against the Rangers, Gonzalez has a 2.18 ERA. C.J. Wilson has a 3.10 ERA on the season and a 3.51 ERA when he pitches at home. He has also allowed 3 runs or less in 9 out of his last 10 starts. He has a good 3.43 ERA in his last 3 starts and gets to face an A's lineup that has struggled to score runs for most of this season. Both pitchers are coming into this game with confidence, pitching well in their last starts and knowing they are going to the All Star Game. BET UNDER 8.5

Last pick: Mets vs. Dodgers under 7 runs = LOSS (5-3 final score)       Record: 17-8

Sorry for the late plays today, I have been having internet problems. Too busy for explanations today, but here are the plays just listed:

Rays (Niemann) vs. Yankees (Colon) UNDER 9.5 RUNS
Twins (Pavano) vs. White Sox (Humber) UNDER 8 RUNS
Mariners (Fister) vs. Angels (Weaver) UNDER 6 RUNS

Last picks: Astros vs. Pirates under 7 runs = WIN (5-1 final score)       Record: 17-7
                    Rays vs. Twins under 7 runs = WIN (3-2 final score)
                    Padres vs. Giants under 6 runs = LOSS (5-3 final score)


Mets (Niese) vs. Dodgers (Kuroda) UNDER 7 RUNS

Jonathon Niese has a 3.72 ERA for the season and a very good 2.59 ERA in his last nine starts. He has allowed 2 runs or less in 7 out of his last 10 starts overall and in each of his last 3 road starts. He is a better pitcher on the road as of late, posting a 2.29 ERA in his last 3 road starts against the pretty tough lineups of the Brewers, Braves and Rangers. I look for him to have a solid start against a Dodgers lineup that has had major trouble scoring run lately. To add to that, both Either and Miles are questionable for this game. Hiroki Kuroda has a good 2.90 ERA for the season and a ERA under 1 in his last 3 starts, sitting currently at 0.95. He has thrown 4 shutouts in his last 10 starts overall and has thrown 2 of them in his last 3 starts. 2 of the shutouts came at home, where he will be pitching tonight. He also has allowed 2 runs or less in 4 out of his last 5 home starts. In his last start he threw 7 shutout innings against the Angels allowing only 3 hits, so he is confident coming into this start. Also, the Mets most important player, Jose Reyes will probably not play tonight. Jason Bay, who was key yesterday, is 1-6 off Kuroda and Angel Pagan is even worse, only 1-8 off the Dodger pitcher. BET UNDER 7

Padres (Stauffer) vs. Giants (Cain) UNDER 6 RUNS

Tim Stauffer has a 2.97 ERA on the season and has allowed 2 runs or less in each of his last 5 starts, good for a 1.71 ERA in his last 3 starts. In his last 14 innings pitched on the road, he has allowed a combined 2 earned runs, pitching at the Twins and at the Nationals. He has really started to turn things around at the beginning of June and has been red hot. He also has a good 3.19 ERA in 36.2 innings pitched against the Giants. Matt Cain has a 3.02 ERA for the season and has allowed 3 runs or less in 7 out of his last 10 starts. Like Stauffer, he too has pitched much better lately. In his last 3 home starts, he has pitched a combined 23 innings and allowed a total of 2 runs against the Indians, Nationals and Rockies. He also has pitched 14 scoreless innings in his last 2 starts, at home vs. the Indians and on the road at the Cubs. He has a miniscule 0.43 ERA in his last 3 starts. In the many innings pitched against the Padres (139), he has a 3.43 ERA against them. The posted number for the total is low, but both pitchers have been extremely hot, both lineups have had their struggles this season and both teams have above average bullpens. BET UNDER 6

Rays (Shields) vs. Twins (Baker) UNDER 7 RUNS

James Shields has a 2.45 ERA on the season and has been having a breakout season. He has allowed 3 runs or less in 8 out of his last 10 starts overall and has also thrown 3 complete games allowing 0 earned runs. His ERA in his last 3 starts is at a very good 1.80. Shields has shown the ability to bounce back strong after a non-quality start. In his last start he allowed 4 runs to the Reds in 7 innings, so I expect a much better start this time out on the road where he is 5-1 with a 2.93 ERA in 8 road starts. I think his stuff is too good for him to suffer two sub par starts in a row. Scott Baker has a good 3.15 ERA on the season and a 1.64 ERA in his last 3 starts. There is quite a difference when Baker pitches at home and on the road. On the road he has allowed at least 3 runs in each of his last 5 starts. But at home in his last 4 starts, he has thrown 3 shutouts and allowed 1 run to the Rangers in a complete game, which is amazing. He also has a 2.88 ERA in 40.2 innings pitched against the Rays. BET UNDER 7

Astros (Rodriguez) vs. Pirates (Karstens) UNDER 7 RUNS

Wandy Rodriguez has a 2.97 ERA on the season and has been on fire since coming off the disabled list in mid June. In his first four starts back, he has thrown three shutouts and has a 2.37 ERA in his last 3 starts. Furthermore, he had been pitching well even before his injury, throwing 5 shutouts in his 10 starts overall and allowing more than 3 runs only twice in those ten starts. He has lots of confidence pitching now when he is healthy and he faces a Pirates team that he is 4-0 with a 1.19 ERA in his last 4 starts against them. Jeff Karstens has a 2.65 ERA for the season and he too has been great as of late. He has been very consistent, allowing 3 runs or less in each of his last 10 starts and 2 runs or less in 9 of them. He also has a 2.61 ERA in his last 3 starts. One last quick fact about Karstens, is that he struggles in day games, with a 4.06 ERA. But today's game will be played at night under the lights, where he is 4-0 with a 1.84 ERA. BET UNDER 7

Last pick: Diamondbacks vs. Athletics under 6.5 runs = LOSS (7-2 final score)       Record: 15-6


No plays today as I am busy and there are not any games I really like, check back in tomorrow.

Last picks: Pirates vs. Nationals (Game 1) under 8 runs = PUSH (5-3 final score)       Record: 15-5
                 Diamondbacks vs. Athletics under 7.5 runs = WIN (4-2 final score)


Diamondbacks (Kennedy) vs. Athletics (Gonzalez) UNDER 6.5 RUNS

Ian Kennedy has a good 3.01 ERA on the season, but has a lower 2.28 ERA on the road. He has allowed one run or less in 4 out of his last 5 road starts. In his last interleague start on the road this season, he limited the Royals to one run over 6 innings. He also has a fantastic 2.05 ERA in his last 3 starts and will be going up against an A's lineup that does not score very many runs at all. Gio Gonzalez has a 2.38 ERA for the season, but a 2.17 ERA at home. Another thing to mention is that he has a 0.78 ERA in his last 5 interleague starts, so he dominates the National League teams. He has also allowed 3 runs or less in 9 out of his last 10 starts overall and has thrown two 1-hit shutouts in his last 10 starts, both of them at home vs. the Angels in 7 innings and vs. the Marlins in 8 innings. The Marlins shutout was in his last start, so he is confident coming into this start, knowing he is at home and vs. a National League opponent. Gonzalez has a 1.29 ERA in his last 3 starts. If the game yesterday in this series stayed under 6.5 runs with Saunders and Outman pitching, I do not see how this game goes over that number. I think we see a low scoring pitcher's duel this afternoon. BET UNDER 6.5

Diamondbacks (Saunders) vs. Athletics (Outman) UNDER 7.5 RUNS

Joe Saunders might have a 4.14 ERA on the season but he has been much better as of late. He holds a 2.57 ERA in his last 3 starts and two of those starts came on the road, both against American League teams. He held the Tigers to just one run in 7 innings and the Royals to 2 runs in 7 innings as well. I think both the Tigers and Royals have better lineups than the A's, so Saunders should have a good start. He also has had success vs. the A's in the past having a 3.50 ERA against them in 103 innings pitched. Another thing to mention is that except for Matsui who has one hit in one at-bat vs. Saunders, the rest of the A's batters do not have an average of .300 or better against him (there are 5 different A's who have more than 10 at-bats against him, so they have seen him a lot, without too much success). Josh Outman has a good 3.10 ERA this season and while he has only started 7 games this season, I think he is a solid pitcher. He has a 2-0 record with a great 1.38 ERA at home in his only two starts there vs. the Orioles and Royals. His ERA in his last 3 starts is a spectacular 1.89 and two of those starts came on the road. The A's have also have a decent bullpen, should Outman need some help tonight. BET UNDER 7.5

Last picks: Giants vs. Tigers under 8.5 runs = WIN (4-3 final score)       Record: 14-5
                 Indians vs. Reds under 9 runs = LOSS (8-2 final score)


Pirates (McDonald) vs. Nationals (Lannan) UNDER 8 RUNS (Game 1 of the doubleheader)

James McDonald has a pretty bad ERA of 4.52 on the season, but has done much better as of late with a 3.31 ERA in his last 3 starts. He has allowed 3 runs or less in 9 out of his last 10 starts overall and has allowed one run in 2 out of his last 4 road starts. He limited the Mets and Reds to just one run in 6 and 6.2 innings respectively. He is also coming off a start vs. the Red Sox where he allowed 0 earned runs, so he has confidence coming into this game. I look for him to have a solid start and the Pirate's bullpen should be able to pitch a few innings to close the game. John Lannan has a good 3.48 ERA on the season, but he has an excellent ERA of 1.81 in home starts this season. He has allowed 2 runs or less in 8 out of his last 10 starts overall and in each of his last 5 home starts. He has also thrown two starts where he allowed 0 earned runs at home vs. the Phillies and Padres. In his last 12.2 innings pitched at home, he has allowed only 3 earned runs vs. the Mariners and Cardinals combined, so he has been good of late, evident by his 2.95 ERA in his last 3 starts. The Nats also have a good bullpen if Lannan needs some help later in the game. BET UNDER 8

Indians (Masterson) vs. Reds (Arroyo) UNDER 9 RUNS

Justin Masterson has a good 2.98 ERA on the season and a lower ERA on the road, currently at 2.58. He has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 7 out of his last 10 starts overall and in 4 out of his last 5 road starts. He is coming off a very good start his last time out, allowing 0 earned runs in a road start in San Francisco vs. the Giants. He has a solid 2.00 ERA in his last 3 starts and look for him to excel in Cincinnati. Bronson Arroyo has a high 5.01 ERA on the season and that drops slightly to 4.53 when he pitches at home. I would rather ignore those numbers and look at his most recent home starts, where he has done well. He has allowed 3 runs or less in 4 out of his last 5 home starts, including his last home start which was a 1 run, 5 hit, 8 inning performance vs. the Blue Jays. He has recovered from bad road starts in the past, especially on 6/3 where he pitched 6 innings and allowed 1 runs vs. the Dodgers after allowing 5 runs in 3 innings in Atlanta. His last road start was in Baltimore where he allowed 5 runs in 6.1 innings, but look for him to recover tonight at home. Another thing to mention is that he has a decent 3.61 ERA vs. the Indians in 47.1 innings pitched against them. The posted total for this game is pretty high and these pitchers are good enough to have a low scoring game. BET UNDER 9

Last pick: Red Sox vs. Phillies under 7 runs = PUSH (5-2 final score)       Record: 13-4


Giants (Bumgarner) vs. Tigers (Penny) UNDER 8.5 RUNS

Madison Bumgarner has an average ERA of 3.84 on the season thus far, with a better 2.86 ERA during his road starts. Except from one nightmare start at home vs. the Twins where he allowed 8 runs, he has allowed 3 runs or less in his last 9 starts. He has allowed 2 runs or less in 3 out of his last 4 road starts. He is coming off a good start vs. the Indians where he allowed only 1 run in 7 innings, so he is confident coming into this start. Brad Penny has a pretty bad 4.66 ERA on the season, but I think he still comes with a strong start tonight. He has a much lower 3.28 ERA at home. He has allowed 3 runs or less in 7 out of his last 10 starts and has pitched two starts where he allowed 0 earned runs, both at home vs. the Royals and Yankees. He has been good so far vs. the National League this season, pitching 12.2 innings vs. the Dodgers and Diamondbacks and allowed only 4 runs total. Lastly, the Giants have had some trouble scoring runs lately and Penny has a 3.05 ERA against them in 115 innings pitched. BET UNDER 8.5