Sunday, July 3, 2011

Last picks: Pirates vs. Nationals (Game 1) under 8 runs = PUSH (5-3 final score)       Record: 15-5
                 Diamondbacks vs. Athletics under 7.5 runs = WIN (4-2 final score)

Diamondbacks (Kennedy) vs. Athletics (Gonzalez) UNDER 6.5 RUNS

Ian Kennedy has a good 3.01 ERA on the season, but has a lower 2.28 ERA on the road. He has allowed one run or less in 4 out of his last 5 road starts. In his last interleague start on the road this season, he limited the Royals to one run over 6 innings. He also has a fantastic 2.05 ERA in his last 3 starts and will be going up against an A's lineup that does not score very many runs at all. Gio Gonzalez has a 2.38 ERA for the season, but a 2.17 ERA at home. Another thing to mention is that he has a 0.78 ERA in his last 5 interleague starts, so he dominates the National League teams. He has also allowed 3 runs or less in 9 out of his last 10 starts overall and has thrown two 1-hit shutouts in his last 10 starts, both of them at home vs. the Angels in 7 innings and vs. the Marlins in 8 innings. The Marlins shutout was in his last start, so he is confident coming into this start, knowing he is at home and vs. a National League opponent. Gonzalez has a 1.29 ERA in his last 3 starts. If the game yesterday in this series stayed under 6.5 runs with Saunders and Outman pitching, I do not see how this game goes over that number. I think we see a low scoring pitcher's duel this afternoon. BET UNDER 6.5

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