Tuesday, July 5, 2011

Rays (Shields) vs. Twins (Baker) UNDER 7 RUNS

James Shields has a 2.45 ERA on the season and has been having a breakout season. He has allowed 3 runs or less in 8 out of his last 10 starts overall and has also thrown 3 complete games allowing 0 earned runs. His ERA in his last 3 starts is at a very good 1.80. Shields has shown the ability to bounce back strong after a non-quality start. In his last start he allowed 4 runs to the Reds in 7 innings, so I expect a much better start this time out on the road where he is 5-1 with a 2.93 ERA in 8 road starts. I think his stuff is too good for him to suffer two sub par starts in a row. Scott Baker has a good 3.15 ERA on the season and a 1.64 ERA in his last 3 starts. There is quite a difference when Baker pitches at home and on the road. On the road he has allowed at least 3 runs in each of his last 5 starts. But at home in his last 4 starts, he has thrown 3 shutouts and allowed 1 run to the Rangers in a complete game, which is amazing. He also has a 2.88 ERA in 40.2 innings pitched against the Rays. BET UNDER 7

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