Friday, July 1, 2011

Indians (Masterson) vs. Reds (Arroyo) UNDER 9 RUNS

Justin Masterson has a good 2.98 ERA on the season and a lower ERA on the road, currently at 2.58. He has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 7 out of his last 10 starts overall and in 4 out of his last 5 road starts. He is coming off a very good start his last time out, allowing 0 earned runs in a road start in San Francisco vs. the Giants. He has a solid 2.00 ERA in his last 3 starts and look for him to excel in Cincinnati. Bronson Arroyo has a high 5.01 ERA on the season and that drops slightly to 4.53 when he pitches at home. I would rather ignore those numbers and look at his most recent home starts, where he has done well. He has allowed 3 runs or less in 4 out of his last 5 home starts, including his last home start which was a 1 run, 5 hit, 8 inning performance vs. the Blue Jays. He has recovered from bad road starts in the past, especially on 6/3 where he pitched 6 innings and allowed 1 runs vs. the Dodgers after allowing 5 runs in 3 innings in Atlanta. His last road start was in Baltimore where he allowed 5 runs in 6.1 innings, but look for him to recover tonight at home. Another thing to mention is that he has a decent 3.61 ERA vs. the Indians in 47.1 innings pitched against them. The posted total for this game is pretty high and these pitchers are good enough to have a low scoring game. BET UNDER 9

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