Wednesday, July 6, 2011

Last picks: Astros vs. Pirates under 7 runs = WIN (5-1 final score)       Record: 17-7
                    Rays vs. Twins under 7 runs = WIN (3-2 final score)
                    Padres vs. Giants under 6 runs = LOSS (5-3 final score)

Mets (Niese) vs. Dodgers (Kuroda) UNDER 7 RUNS

Jonathon Niese has a 3.72 ERA for the season and a very good 2.59 ERA in his last nine starts. He has allowed 2 runs or less in 7 out of his last 10 starts overall and in each of his last 3 road starts. He is a better pitcher on the road as of late, posting a 2.29 ERA in his last 3 road starts against the pretty tough lineups of the Brewers, Braves and Rangers. I look for him to have a solid start against a Dodgers lineup that has had major trouble scoring run lately. To add to that, both Either and Miles are questionable for this game. Hiroki Kuroda has a good 2.90 ERA for the season and a ERA under 1 in his last 3 starts, sitting currently at 0.95. He has thrown 4 shutouts in his last 10 starts overall and has thrown 2 of them in his last 3 starts. 2 of the shutouts came at home, where he will be pitching tonight. He also has allowed 2 runs or less in 4 out of his last 5 home starts. In his last start he threw 7 shutout innings against the Angels allowing only 3 hits, so he is confident coming into this start. Also, the Mets most important player, Jose Reyes will probably not play tonight. Jason Bay, who was key yesterday, is 1-6 off Kuroda and Angel Pagan is even worse, only 1-8 off the Dodger pitcher. BET UNDER 7

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